01 November 2004

It's Over.

Gallup, a poll that disproportionately oversamples Republicans, has Kerry up by four points in Florida. Early voting in Florida shows Kerry beating Bush by 51%-43%, with about a third of registered voters already in. In network terms, this is enough to call the state for Kerry.

Similar results in other "early voting battleground states" like Iowa and Tennessee: roughly 52%-41% for Kerry.

As I've been saying for months, and will repeat for the record here: I predict a Kerry blowout -- 53 to 57 percent of the popular vote -- and around 300 electoral votes. In other words, a clear victory.

The best part, of course, being that if there are any state recounts, it doesn't look like Florida will be among them.

UPDATE: Well, looks like I was wrong on all counts, but I have to say for the record that the e-voting results in south Florida (and Ohio) look more than a little suspicious to me. While it's not over yet, I have to say I'm deeply disappointed in America regardless of the final outcome of this race. Huge sections of this country seem very determined to goosestep down the path of empire.

John Edwards was right: there are two Americas. It's time for me to re-evaluate my ability to deal with a bipolar relationship.

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